Make Money Online Betting – If you’ve been tempted by a flutter, you’ll know how bookmakers and casinos stack the odds against you. The most obvious example is roulette, where there are 36 red and black numbers plus the green numbers 0 and (in the US) 00. So that’s 38 possibilities in total. When betting on red or black, the probability of the correct selection is 18/38, and the fair payout for a stake of $1 is $2.111. However, the house only pays $2 and keeps the difference. In this way, he guarantees himself to make a profit.
A similar bias occurs in bookmakers’ odds of horse racing, football, and all other sporting events. The bookies are always sure that the odds are in their favor. But setting these odds is more difficult than for roulette because the calculations are more difficult.
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And that raises an uncomfortable possibility. Is it possible to come up with a better way to calculate the odds, and thus beat the bookies?
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We found an answer thanks to the 2017 work of Lisandro Kaunitz at the University of Tokyo and some friends, who found a way to still make money in the online betting market for football.
But their work has a serious caveat. Kaunitz and colleagues said that as soon as the bookmakers learned of this success, they stopped the researchers from betting any more.
Gamblers have long played with plans to beat the odds, but success has been rare. That’s because bookmakers work hard to calculate accurate odds. Statistical teams are often used to study historical data for a sport such as football and develop sophisticated models to determine accurate odds for each game.
Kaunitz and colleagues say that as far as they know, no one has beaten this system by creating better statistical models.
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But despite this sophisticated approach, there is a weakness in the way bookmakers work. This has to do with how bets are hedged to protect against the possibility of large payouts.
For example, if two teams play a soccer game, bookies place the odds that each team will record a win, a loss, or a draw. Sometimes many people may bet on a particular result for reasons unrelated to the odds – this team may be more popular than expected, for example. In this case, the bookmaker is set for a large payout if this result occurs.
So bookies can hedge their bets by offering more favorable odds on the opposite outcome. This way, they attract bets that cover at least some of their potential losses.
Kaunitz and colleagues say this process also creates an opportunity for anyone to find it. The trick the researchers perfected was to develop a method that always found the odds favored the bettor over the bookie.
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The procedures are simple. They start by assuming that the bookies themselves are good at setting the odds and that the prices they offer are an accurate reflection of the true probability of a win, draw, or loss, plus their own margin.
In this case, a good measure of these possibilities is a simple average of the possibilities offered by all bookmakers – a kind of wisdom of the crowd. This gives the average probabilities, which Kaunitz and colleagues say is a remarkably accurate reflection of the true probabilities.
Then it is a simple matter of analyzing all the possibilities offered and looking for outliers. Kaunitz and co’s next job is how favorable the outside odds are. If they’re good, then the bet should pay off, at least in the long run.
And that’s exactly what Kaunitz and co. They have built a web crawler that combines the odds offered by online betting companies on soccer games around the world. They calculate the average odds, find any outliers, and then check whether a bet goes in their favor or not.
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Before making any real money, the researchers tested the idea with 10 years of historical data on the odds and results of 479,440 football games played between 2005 and 2015. This that simulation paid 44 percent of the time and gave a yield of 3.5. percentage over a 10-year period. “For a hypothetical profit of $50 per bet, this equates to a profit equivalent to $98,865 on 56,435 bets,” they said.
An important question is whether this result could be better luck. Are they just lucky? So the team compared the results of 2,000 simulations in which they placed random bets on the same games. In this case, bets are paid 39 percent of the time with a return of -3.2 percent, which corresponds to a loss of $ 93,000.
This allows the team to calculate the probability that the first result is an accident. “The probability of getting a return greater than or equal to $98,865 on 56,435 bets using a random betting strategy is less than 1 in a billion,” they said.
That gives Kaunitz and colleagues a good reason to think their method will work in the real world, but there’s a problem. Ordinary bettors cannot always bet on close odds, which may differ from the odds given at the start of a game.
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So, Kaunitz and co decided to simulate it as well. “We decided to create a more realistic simulation where we place bets available from 1 to 5 hours before the start of each game,” they said.
The way the odds differ in the running of the games is not available to the public, so the team created a bot that collected these odds from betting websites around the world from September 2015 to the end of February 2016 Then they tested their method on these data. set
The result is even better. The bets paid off 47.6 percent of the time and yielded a 9.9 percent return. “If each bet placed was $50, our strategy would generate $34,932 in profit on 6,994 bets,” they said.
Surprisingly, a random betting strategy on the same data gives a return of 0.2 percent and a profit of $ 825. This may be the result of intense competition between online betting companies that sometimes offer more favorable odds to attract bettors to a loss policy- leader quality.
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The team then tested the method using a strategy known as “paper trading,” where they placed fictitious bets using real-time data rather than historical data. This is important because it allows them to check if the quoted odds actually exist in an online bookmaker.
In fact, they discovered that about 30 percent of the time, the odds changed when they tried to check online. In these cases, the bet is thrown.
But the strategy is still profitable. After three months of paper trading, the bets returned a profit of 5.5 percent, earning $ 1, 128.50 on 407 bets of $ 50.
So they repeated their procedure within five months, using the same method, except that a human operator would actually place a $50 bet online after checking the odds. During this period, bets paid 47.2 percent of the time, and they made a profit of $957.50 on 265 bets. This is an impressive return of 8.5 percent.
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Eagle-eyed readers will notice that the number of bets placed is significantly less than during the paper trade. “The reason for this is that we do not have a dedicated operator betting on all opportunities available 24 hours a day and as a result we miss many bets that appear,” they said.
But the small number of bets does not matter. “Our paper sales and current betting activity confirm the profitability of the strategy,” said Kaunitz and co.
This is a clever approach with an interesting result. Kaunitz and company found the Achilles heel of the betting industry and exploited it for their own profit.
But the stories come with pain. “Although we play according to the rules of the sports betting industry, a few months after we started placing bets with real money bookmakers they started severely limiting our accounts,” the team said.
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Bookmakers often limit the bets they can place or suggest a “manual inspection” of the bet before accepting it. Under these circumstances, the team cannot make bets.
If the bookmakers choose the bet in question randomly, this should have no effect on the profit of the strategy. But Kaunitz and colleagues say that it is easy and that the actions of bookmakers can seriously affect them. “In these circumstances we cannot continue with our betting strategy,” they said.
Kaunitz and co are clearly unhappy: “The sports betting industry has the freedom to advertise and offer odds to customers, but customers expect to lose and, if successful, may be prevented from betting.”
The team pointed out that this type of practice would be illegal. “Advertising goods or services with the intention of not selling them as claimed, or advertising goods or services without the intention of providing reasonable demand, but with the intention of persuading the customer to buy something else that product.
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